Probabilistic Planning Monte Carlo Analyses for Projects
A probabilistic planning incorporates real world risks to your project planning and cost estimate to create a more realistic planning. A probabilistic planning also gives you an insight in the risks with the biggest impact on your planning and costs. Both of these advantages can greatly improve your project management and increase the chance that you deliver on-time and within budget.
To create a probabilistic analyses of your planning you can follow these steps:
- Set up a deterministic project planning without the slack for the occurrences of the project risks
- Set up a project risk register with risk description, likelihood, impact on planning in days, planning phase or activity in which the risk can occur
- Connect deterministic planning and risk register on phase and activity
- Perform a Monte Carlo analyses of the connected planning
You can also use a probabilistic Monte Carlo analyses to improve the financial cost estimate for your project. If you want a probabilistic analyses of the financial cost estimate for your project you can follow these steps:
- Set up a deterministic project planning for your Work Breakdown Structure without the slack for the occurrences of the project risks
- Set up a cashflow forecast based on your Work Breakdown Structure
- Set up a project risk register with risk description, likelihood, impact on costs and work package(s) involved
- Connect deterministic WBS planning, cashflow forecast and risk register on work package
- Perform a Monte Carlo analyses of the connected forecast
Amventure is a consultancy in The Netherlands that specialises in project management support, project controls and governance. We support projects around the world with probabilistic planning Monte Carlo analyses for projects in IT, infrastructure, energy and construction. If you already have a proper deterministic planning and risk register we can do the Monte Carlo analyses for your projects. If required we also can support you with setting up and maintaining your project planning and risk register.
For more information, please contact Remco Schrijver at info@amventure.nl or use the contact button on this page.